A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) considers the spread of a new disease as a pandemic when the disease has spread over several countries or continents, affecting a large number of people.
The current coronavirus (now named COVID-19) spreading from China is a pandemic. The lack of immunity combined with the ease of transmission from people who are not exhibiting symptoms means that this disease will continue to spread. Currently, there are outbreaks in China, South Korea,
Japan, Iran and Italy.
The measures being taken in China (quarantines of entire regions) will most likely not be followed in other countries. Expect the focus to shift toward methods of warning people how to reduce their risk of catching the disease. This effort will focus on the elderly and people with weak immune
systems, instructing them to wash their hands and avoid public places.
The shift in strategy is for two reasons. First, it is believed that the number of infected individuals has been widely under-reported due to most healthy people having only mild symptoms and dealing with it like a normal flu bug. With this reasoning, the currently reported 2% death rate is likely much lower, making COVID-19 not as dangerous as people believe it is.
Second, it is expected that COVID-19 will behave similar to other influenza-type viruses and not survive in the warmer weather. As winter continues to wane in the northern hemisphere, it is expected that COVID-19 will become less transmissible and pose less of a threat.
This isn’t to say that the disease isn’t going to dominate the headlines for the next few weeks. You can expect the virus to continue to spread. COVID-19 is going to make waves, but it isn’t going to be the end of the world.